About three in four Albertans voted Monday to stay in Canada. With more than 1.8 million votes counted by 7:10 a.m. MT Tuesday, Remain held 75.7% against 24.3% for the option that would have started the legal process toward a binding separation referendum, CBC News reported. The Canadian Press and Reuters, working from the same early returns, rounded it to 76% and 24%. Those figures are unofficial. Elections Alberta had results from about 78% of voting locations as of 7 a.m., according to Global News, and final turnout has not been published.
The margin beat the polls. Leger and Ipsos both had Remain at 70% in the weeks before the vote, with 22% and 20% backing the separation process. For comparison, Quebec’s 1995 referendum on sovereignty came down to 50.58%.
The separation question was the 10th on the ballot, and it was counted first. The other nine, on immigration and the Constitution, went more Premier Danielle Smith’s way, and they are the part of Monday’s vote that carries forward. Smith had said she needed Yes votes on them to have a mandate to bargain with Ottawa, CBC News reported.
The second question Alberta won’t have to write
A Remain win means no second question. Under the Clarity Act, the House of Commons would have reviewed the wording of any secession question within 30 days of its release, then judged whether a clear majority had voted to leave. Ottawa had already said the October ballot didn’t trigger that review. Monday’s result means the review never comes into play. Smith also promised before the vote that 50% plus one would decide it and that there would be no follow-up referendum for the rest of her government’s mandate, The Canadian Press reported. The next provincial election is set for October 2027.
Eight of nine for Smith, by thinner margins
Early counts had Yes ahead on eight of the nine other questions. The five on immigration and voting were never close. The four constitutional questions, which ask the province to work with other provinces on amending the Constitution, were near an even split.
| Question | What it asked | Early count |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 | More provincial control over immigration, to lower it | About 56% Yes |
| Q2 | Limit provincially funded programs to citizens, permanent residents and Alberta-approved statuses | About 57% Yes |
| Q3 | 12-month wait for non-permanent residents before social support programs | 56% to 59% Yes |
| Q4 | Fee for non-permanent residents using health care and schools | 56% to 59% Yes |
| Q5 | Proof of citizenship to vote in provincial elections | About 63% Yes |
| Q6 | Provinces, not Ottawa, pick King’s Bench and Appeal Court judges | 51.1% Yes |
| Q7 | Abolish the Senate | Yes leading (margin not yet reported by two sources) |
| Q8 | Opt out of federal programs in provincial areas, keeping the funding | About 51% No |
| Q9 | Provincial laws take priority over conflicting federal ones | Nearly 51% Yes |
Figures for Q1, Q2, Q5, Q6, Q8 and Q9 come from CBC News and Global News tallies on Tuesday morning. CBC gave Q3 and Q4 only as a range for the four immigration questions. These questions were counted after Question 10 and are moving more slowly. Elections Alberta said unofficial results would be available within 48 hours of polls closing, and Global News reported official results are expected Oct. 29.
The one question trailing is Question 8. It asked for the right to leave federal programs in health care, education and social services without losing the federal money attached to them.
Melanee Thomas, a University of Calgary political scientist, told CBC Radio the early numbers were “perhaps as good as the premier could have hoped for.” She said they give Smith room to tell the separatist wing of her United Conservative Party that the province tried it and saw the answer.
Carney’s answer on immigration
Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters on his way into a cabinet meeting Tuesday that he was “thrilled” with the result. He said he and Smith had spoken that morning about the immigration results and about helping the families of the soldiers killed in this week’s fire at CFB Wainwright. On immigration, CBC reported, Carney said the two governments could get there “without constitutional change.”
That sets up the next round. Five of Smith’s questions were about immigration and services, and Carney is offering to deal with them inside the existing Constitution. Three of the four constitutional questions also passed, narrowly, and those can only be pursued by amendment. Smith addresses the province at 6:45 p.m. MT Tuesday on what she called “where our province goes from here.”
Separatists turn toward the UCP
The separatist side did not concede the argument. “We’re not going anywhere,” Jeffrey Rath of the Alberta Prosperity Project told supporters Monday night, according to The Canadian Press. Rath also said Smith would face the same fate as her predecessor, Jason Kenney, who announced he would step down in 2022 after barely surviving a party leadership review. Two UCP constituency associations have reportedly backed calls for an early leadership review before the party’s annual general meeting in November.
Not every separatist agrees with that plan. Cory Morgan, founder of the third-party advertiser Pathway to Independence, told CBC Radio that turning the UCP into a separatist party would be “pretty stupid” with 75% of the province against it. He said the campaign had six or seven groups speaking at once and needed one advocacy voice instead.
The vote itself had problems. Elections Alberta spokesperson Kevin Duncan told CBC that 106 voting stations opened late because of staffing shortages, poor internet connections and furniture that arrived late. Some stayed open until 10:41 p.m. Several First Nations polling stations ran short of ballots, and one ran out completely for a time. Keith Archer, a former chief electoral officer of British Columbia, gave the agency a C+.
The U.S. questions that hung over the campaign are still open. Before the vote, The Globe and Mail reported that separatist leaders had met State Department officials and that Republican strategists had pitched them voter-turnout software. Canada’s foreign-influence registry only covers activity after Aug. 4, as our pre-vote explainer laid out. Reuters reported no immediate reaction to the result from President Donald Trump.
On X: the leaders react
Smith posted “Thank you, Alberta!” Monday night, The Canadian Press reported. Her wording, “a stronger Alberta in a united Canada,” is close to Poilievre’s.
Carney posted after his call with Smith Tuesday morning:
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who represents the Alberta riding of Battle River—Crowfoot, used his reaction to list his own priorities, including “less immigration”:
Sources
- CBC News, “Prime Minister Carney ‘thrilled that Albertans have chosen unity'” (live updates, Oct. 20, 2026)
- Global News, “Albertans mixed on other referendum questions after rejecting separation” (Oct. 20, 2026)
- The Canadian Press via CTV News, “Albertans vote to reject a referendum on separation” (Oct. 19, 2026)
- Reuters via CNBC, “Alberta votes by large majority to remain part of Canada in boost for Carney” (Oct. 20, 2026)
- CNN, “Alberta rejects secession referendum, chooses to remain part of Canada” (Oct. 20, 2026)
- Elections Alberta, “Referendum advance voting and special ballot voter turnout”
- Clarity Act, S.C. 2000, c. 26 (Justice Laws Website)
- Danielle Smith on X, Oct. 19, 2026
- Mark Carney on X, Oct. 20, 2026
- Pierre Poilievre on X, Oct. 20, 2026