OPINION
You ever notice how some families keep their history in a shoebox? Clippings from the local paper, a wedding announcement, an obituary with the date written in pen along the margin. Nobody would call it an official record, but it’s the one everybody checks when they need to know who married whom.
The United States now keeps track of the aircraft it has lost in the Iran war more or less the same way.
This week the headlines said the number “nearly doubles.” Military Times put it that way, and CNN led with 81 military aircraft “worth up to $3.3 billion.” The source for all of it is a four-page memo from the Congressional Research Service, Congress’s in-house researchers, updated Oct. 5. It lists 81 U.S. aircraft “reportedly lost or damaged” since Operation Epic Fury began on Feb. 28, up from 42 when the same memo was updated in May.
I read both versions side by side. The story is less about how many airplanes there are than about where the count comes from.
What “nearly doubles” is made of
Start with the additions. Of the 39 new entries, eight are F-15E Strike Eagles that took what the memo, citing press reports, calls “light damage” in a September missile strike on a base in Jordan and were “returned to service.” They count. So does a second A-10 damaged in the same strike. Another 21 are MQ-9 Reaper drones, raising that line from 24 to 45, based on an August article in which three U.S. officials said the military had lost “at least 45.” Three more are smaller MQ-1 drones. The last six are helicopters the memo added from the Pentagon inspector general’s September report, including four Little Birds that, per the inspector general, U.S. forces destroyed themselves during rescue operations.
The $3.3 billion isn’t quite what the CNN headline suggests either. The memo cites a Congressional Budget Office estimate of $1.9 billion to $3.3 billion for “equipment losses as of August 1,” which is all equipment and stops two months before the current count.
None of this makes the losses small. A KC-135 crash in Iraq killed six airmen in March. A Navy commander was lost when his helicopter went down in the Arabian Sea in July. Those entries are not a rounding error.
Where the count comes from
Here is the part the headlines skipped. In its May version, the research service noted that the Defense Department “has not published a comprehensive assessment of combat losses.” So it built its own, from what it describes as news reports and statements by the Pentagon, Central Command and the inspector general.
By my count, 15 of the 81 aircraft on the October list trace to an official statement, from Central Command, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs or the inspector general’s report. The other 66 trace to news articles, a good number of them quoting officials who wouldn’t give their names. The single largest line, the 45 Reapers, rests on one article and three unnamed officials.
And the inspector general’s report doesn’t exactly settle things. According to CNN, it cites earlier CRS reports for some of its own aircraft numbers. So Congress’s researchers are citing the inspector general, who is citing Congress’s researchers, and both are citing the newspaper. It’s the shoebox, with a cross-reference.
Meanwhile, Congress is being asked to pay for replacements. The memo’s first “issue for Congress” is whether Congress has “sufficient information” to judge the losses and the Pentagon’s plans to replace them. That is a remarkably polite way for Congress’s own researchers to ask whether anyone has told Congress.
The case for keeping the ledger closed
The Pentagon’s best argument is a serious one. The war isn’t over. Strikes resumed after the April ceasefire, and the memo itself says conditions “remain fluid.” A complete, official, line-by-line list of what was hit, where and when is a damage assessment the enemy doesn’t have to do itself. Iran would like very much to know which of its strikes on Prince Sultan and Muwaffaq Salti did what. Drone losses in particular reveal where the aircraft fly and what shoots them down. The department hasn’t been entirely silent, either. Central Command announced several losses as they happened, and the inspector general put more on the record in September. Members of the armed services committees can also ask for classified briefings, so the public scrapbook may not be what lawmakers actually see. Wartime secrecy about losses is old and not always sinister.
All true. But the funding request isn’t classified, and neither is the bill. If the count is too sensitive to publish, the Pentagon can say so and give Congress a number in a closed room. What it has done instead, as far as the public record shows, is let a nonpartisan research office assemble the total from press clippings and then cite that office’s work in its own report.
The memo closes by noting that its figures “may remain subject to revision.” I’d guess that means the shoebox may need more clippings.
The research service’s memo, “U.S. Aircraft Combat Losses in Operation Epic Fury,” is IN12692 on congress.gov, where both the May and October versions are available.
Sources: Congressional Research Service, IN12692, “U.S. Aircraft Combat Losses in Operation Epic Fury: Considerations for Congress,” updated May 13 and Oct. 5, 2026; Military Times, “US aircraft lost or damaged in Iran war nearly doubles in latest congressional report” (Oct. 7, 2026); CNN, “US has lost or sustained damage to 81 military aircraft worth up to $3.3 billion in Iran war, congressional report says” (Oct. 8, 2026).